http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...erizon-iphone/
Apple: To Ward Off Android Threat, It Needs A Verizon iPhone
Posted by Eric Savitz
Android is turning into a bigger threat to Apple (AAPL) in the smart phone market than some of the iPhone fanboys on the Street had expected. And the time has come for Apple to do something about it.
At least, that’s what Bernstein Research analysts Toni Sacconagh and Pierre Ferragu think. In a research note this morning, they note that
the daily run-rate for Android phone sales has more than tripled in the last seven months, to 200,000 phones a day from 60,000. They estimate that 53 million Android phones will ship this year - a number so big that he contends Android alone will drive smart phone sales well above recent market forecasts for the sector as a whole of 47% this year and 23% next year. The analysts think the numbers will be more like 55% this year and 30% next year. And they contend that Android and Apple combined could be as much as 52% of the overall smart phone market by the end of 2011, up from 18% at the end of 2009. Their conclusion is that “a more head-to-head battle for market share might emerge earlier” than previously thought.
The Bernstein analysts think the Android installed base could exceed that of the iPhone in a little over 5 quarters. If that happens, they add, it could “undermine Apple’s powerful first mover advantage and network effect that we believe has been instruments in shaping iPhone’s popularity to date.”
A key reason for Android’s
momentum, they add, is the fact that the iPhone is still selling through just one carrier in some countries, including the U.S., where AT&T (T) remains the exclusive carrier. And that brings us to a point Sacconaghi has been harping on for months: they need to add versions of the phone for the large carriers that don’t currently sell it, including Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD), Vodafone Germany, NTT DoCoMo and
China Mobile. Interesting, he notes that Android is only available on 59 carriers, versus 154 for iPhone - the issue is that Apple lacks deals with some of the world’s largest wireless carriers.
Sacconaghi and Ferragu contend Apple is working on a CDMA iPhone, and that it could hit the market by early-to-mid 2011. “
We believe Apple needs to strike distribution deals with these carriers, even if it has to sacrifice some pricing power since doing so would still be accretive to company gross margins, and take away the strong foothold it currently provides to a potentially formidable competitor.”
And one other thing: Saccoanghi contends that, given the
momentum for Android and Apple, there is a scenario in which both Nokia (NOK) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are “increasingly marginalized.”
On Nokia, their view is that the company “has a
short window of opportunity to gain traction with Symbian on 2 fronts – consumers and developers. For now this traction remains limited and the fact that Android’s run-rate is approaching Nokia’s means the window won’t stay open very
long.”
On RiMM, they add that “without a fundamental change in its product strategy, RIM is at risk of seeing an
accelerating erosion of its user base via migration towards other platforms.”
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