[Green]

ich bin eigentlich für den autosektor langfristig ziemlich bearish.
die abwrackprämien programme rund um die welt haben erheblich die nachfrage vorgezogen, die in den nächsten jahren fehlen wird.

ich rechne ausserdem nicht damit, dass die finanzierung von autokrediten wieder subprime niveau erreichen wird und gehe davon aus, dass die leute in den usa ihre autos länger fahren werden.

however - die folgende analyse hat mein interesse geweckt.
wann immer ich über eine neue, effiziente technologie lese und einen klaren marktführer sehe, dann lohnt sich weiteres research.


http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/201...parts-day.html

BWA; TRW, JCI - Auto parts day

Today is Auto parts day, folks. Two tier-1 firms are out with significant calls on Autos & Auto-Related sectors:

- UBS is out with a lengthy note titled: "Which Technologies Will Benefit Most from Fuel Economy Regulation?" In this report, they have identified the lowest cost technologies needed to meet US fuel economy targets. Based on their analysis, they forecast that dual clutch transmissions (DCTs) and turbochargers will have the best growth prospects. The firm is raising their 2012 to 2014 EPS estimates for Borg Warner (NYSE:BWA) to reflect the outsized growth of these technologies.

Borg Warner (NYSE:BWA) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $50 price target (prev. $50).

According to UBS, BWA currently has a 35% share in turbos and is the only global supplier of wet DCTs. Consequently, BWA’s organic growth should significantly exceed that of the industry. UBS forecasts that BWA’s sales will double in the next 4 years. By 2016, they forecast that the US DCT and gas turbocharger markets will grow to $1.9bn and $1.3bn respectively from almost nothing today.

chart: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YzBo7Kz5y1...utlook_BWA.GIF

One of the most cost effective means of improving fuel economy will be to downsize engines. Automakers can downsize engine and maintain fuel economy by adding direct injection and a turbocharger. A turbocharged four cylinder engine can get similar fuel economy to a V-6 engine. UBS believes that by 2016 18% of gas engines will be turbocharged. By 2020, they expect penetration to reach 25%. Each gas turbo costs about $440/vehicle, and therefore they estimate the turbocharger market will increase to $1.3bn by 2016 and $1.9bn to 2020.

The gasoline engine downsizing trend will also accelerate in Europe. VW said that in a few years it is likely that 90% of their gasoline engines would be turbocharged. Automakers like Fiat have plans to aggressively downsize engines. Fiat plans to offer a turbocharged two-cylinder engine in Europe.

Diesel mix mitigates European exposure. 57% of BWA’s 2009 sales were in Europe, and therefore BWA will clearly be impacted by the expected declines in European auto sales. European sales are expected to decline 15-20% in the second half of this year. Beyond 2010, UBS expects flat European sales with sales down 1% in 2011 and up 1% in 2012. Despite its high regional sales exposure, they believe that BWA will significantly outperform the European market. BWA is levered to the European diesel market since almost all diesels use turbochargers. Diesels significantly underperformed the market in 2009 as diesel penetration fell from 53% in 2008 to only 46% in 2009. This implied that diesel sales declined by 15% while total industry sales declined by only 2%. Q1 2010 diesel mix was 50%, and they expect diesel mix to continue to recover in 2010.

Raising EPS estimates. UBS is raising their 2012 to 2014 EPS estimates for BWA to reflect the projected outsized growth of DCTs and gas turbochargers. They are raising their 2012 EPS estimate from $3.75 to $3.80, their 2013 estimate from $4.60 to $4.85, and their 2014 EPS estimate from $5.15 to $5.40.


- Morgan Stanley is upgrading the Autos & Auto-Related sector to Attractive from In-Line.

- Borg Warner (NYSE:BWA) estimates go to $2.40 from $1.80 for 2010 and $3.45 from $3.00 for 2011, which are 5-7% above consensus. Morgan Stanley notes their bull case for BWA seems to be playing out with turbo and DCT penetration growth enabling BWA to grow faster than industry growth rates and restructuring actions finally gaining traction. They continue to believe that BWA has one of the most comprehensive portfolios of green technology related to the IC engine . BWA’s recent acquisition of a diesel emissions supplier and significant YTD program wins including Ford’s 4-cylinder Ecoboost, further strengthen this position, in firm's view. BWA trades at discount to its traditional historical valuation premium at 10.9x FY11 EPS (group 10.8x, hist. 14-15x), and 4.6x EV/2011 EBTIDA (group 5.1x, hist. 6-7x).



->leider hält sich meine kompetenz in sachen auto arg in grenzen.

wenn also jemand mit tieferen kenntnissen etwas zu DCT/turbocharging schreiben möchte - immer raus damit! danke!

jetzt mit 2014er schätzungen zu hantieren ist sinnlos, aber typisch analysten.

habe mit BWA noch nicht näher angeschaut. aber da die jungs in diesem jahr rund 5mrd an umsatz machen werden und der turbocharger markt von einem sehr niedrigen niveau wachsen wird, so dürften sich die gewinnbeiträge vorerst in grenzen halten. oder haben die turbocharger deutlich höhere margen als der rest des BWA produktportfolios?