[Green]

mixed stuff:

ausführlicher artikel zum thema YEN und schwäche der japanischen wirtschaft: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...-haven-status/



nochmal japan:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...-share-scheme/

Tokyo eyes share scheme

Posted by Gwen Robinson on Feb 25 04:28.

Japan’s government could buy shares to prop up the ailing stock market in a desperate attempt to limit the economic fallout from tumbling equity prices. Kaoru Yosano, the new finance minister, said the government was examining measures including a 1960s scheme involving two consortia that spent Y400bn ($4.1bn) to shore up stock prices over two years. His comments came as Japanese share prices continued to plunge, ahead of news Wednesday that Japan’s exports plunged a quarterly 46% in January.


den katastrophalen export einbruch von 47% habt ihr ja schon erwähnt.
japan, dass immer aussenhandelsüberschüsse erwirtschaftet hat, ist nun tief in ein defizit gerutscht.
damit ergibt sich eine weitere folge: japan wird deshalb vorerst keine devisenreserven mehr ansammeln. gut möglich, dass sie deshalb in zukunft weniger treasuries kaufen werden.



nochmal zum thema banken und kapitalausstattung (siehe Bernankes gestrige kommentare zum stress test).
nur ein teil der bisher bereitgestellten staatsgelder kann wirklich verluste auffangen.
früher oder später werden (wie bei citi) die preferreds aber in common stock gewandelt werden müssen (siehe grafik), was auf jeden fall die altaktionäre diluted und zur verstaatlichung führen kann.

zum verständnis hier nochmal ein einsteiger artikel: Tangible Common Equity for Beginners

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...-to-core-lite/

Welcome to “core lite”

Posted by Paul Murphy on Feb 25 09:45.

As banks seemingly everywhere talk to their governments about fresh capital injections, Simon Samuels of Citigroup has issued an untimely reminder that this capital will only serve a purpose if it is available to absorb losses.
European banks have raised about €230bn of fresh capital since the start of 2008 - but questions remain over how much safer investors should feel. Says Samuels in a note to Citi clients:

Only about half of this fresh capital can be truly considered ‘core’ — capital that can absorb losses alongside equity. The remainder of the capital injected has typically taken the form of preference shares. Why should investors care? After all, if regulators are satisfied that new capital counts as ‘core’ and keeps the Tier 1 ratio above the 4% minimum, then surely the threat of liquidation is academic? Perhaps. But issuing preference shares to replace eroded ‘core’ capital cannot carry on indefinitely. Once the equity is wiped out, preference share holders (mainly governments) face equity-style risks without an equity-style upside. This is likely to increase the risk of nationalisation.

He quotes RBS boss Stephen Hester from a recent conference call as saying: “Preference shares are just a disguised form of leverage…this is a penny that has still got to drop fully.” The point here being that non-core capital injections, which are then used to expand lending, increase leverage for equity investors.

And, given the political pressures on banks to increase domestic lending in return for the capital injections, such loans may be suboptimally priced or allocated, in turn accelerating bad debt provisions and capital erosion. Furthermore, lopsided balance sheets, with masses of non-core capital, will need to be fixed at some stage, suggesting a further drag on RoEs even after the crisis abates. So while the threat of a systemic collapse may be receding, the picture for equity investors remains bleak.

Here’s Samuels’ illustration of how a bank’s capital should work
Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that all recent government capital injections have genuinely bolstered the core — in particular, improvements at Commerzbank, KBC, Bank of Ireland and BNP Paribas can at best be described as “core lite.”



Essentially, these banks have de-leveraged far more substantially for senior debt holders than pure equity holders. As political pressure to expand lending collides with realised losses that could spell real trouble.



Houston vergibt staatsgelder, um credit scores aufzupumpen

Pay Down Credit Cards

Joe Weisenthal|Feb. 24, 2009, 3:35 PM|11

Good lord. We have apparently learned nothing from the subprime debacle. At least the city of Houston hasn't learned anything. In a bid to encourage homebuying, the city is considering helping its residents pay off their credit cards so that they might get a slight bump in credit scores.

The “Credit Score Enhancement Program” will give up to $3,000 in grants to individuals who are trying to qualify for mortgages through the city’s homebuyers assistance program. City officials say some applicants fall short of eligibility by only 10 or 20 points on their credit scores, and paying off some debt balances can quickly improve their numbers.

Now granted, we think the credit score system is messed up, but seriously, the city council members that support this must mean that having a good credit score just makes you automatically credit-worthy. It's like thinking that if we give children A's on their report cards, then they'll get smart.

Oh wait, we do believe this.

[KISS]

markt sieht nun ganz bullish aus. die chancen stehen nun gut. könnte kurzfristig (1-3 tage) weit ziehen.

k.i.s.s.

[KISS]

Zitat von KISS

markt sieht nun ganz bullish aus. die chancen stehen nun gut. könnte kurzfristig (1-3 tage) weit ziehen.

k.i.s.s.

halbherziger break, keine kraft dahinter. da habe ich mir mehr erwartet.

k.i.s.s.

[LongTrader]

Aktuelles von der Arbeitswelt:

Fewer large employers plan layoffs: survey

In a sign that record-high levels of payroll cuts may ease in coming months, the number of employers that said they plan to lay off workers dropped steeply in a new survey of 245 large U.S. firms.
Thirteen percent of large companies said they are planning job cuts, down from 23% who said that in December and 26% in October, according to the survey conducted in mid-February. More than half the companies surveyed employ more than 5,000 workers, and 80% of the firms have at least 2,000 employees.

52% said they've fired workers, up from 39% in December and 19% in October.
42% have frozen salaries, up from 13% in December.
13% have instituted a shortened work week.

61% -- said they expect the economic downturn to last through the end of the year.

**********************

Ukraine vom Staatsbankrott bedroht: S&P

Ukraine's credit rating cut by S&P amid default fears

Ukraine's credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Wednesday, heightening worries over the country's economic deterioration and even the possibility of debt default.
The ratings agency cut Ukraine's foreign currency sovereign credit ratings by two notches, to CCC+/C from B/B.

[Green]

danke Longtrader,

ist aber ein bischen augewischerei (der medien?)

oktober:

will fire: 26%
have fired: 19%
=45%

dezember:

will fire: 23%
have fired: 39%
=62%

februar:

will fire: 13%
have fiired: 52%
=65%

m.e. ist es vollkommen normal das nach zwei monaten massiver layoffs erstmal die lage neu gecheckt wird.
wenn die quote auch im april noch bei 13% oder niedriger legt, erst dann würde ich von einem absehbaren ende der massenentlassungen reden.

die frage ist ausserdem: haben die 52% die gefeuert haben, schon ihre GESAMTEN entlassungspläne umgesetzt, oder sind in diesen 52% auch arbeitgeber dabei, die weiter abbauen?

[Volatilität]

Rothschild's Meinung

http://www.lcf-rothschild.ch/en/gene...es/tdfev09.pdf

kleiner Ausschnitt von Anfang Februar

Investors should shy
away from government
bonds, which were left
overpriced after last
autumn's panic. Given
the flood of new issues
and the likelihood of reflation
later on, sovereign
issues offer little
potential for capital
gains compared with
good-quality corporate
paper. In a sign of
more possible disappointments
to come, Germany found
takers for only €4 billion of its €6 billion
10-year issue floated early this month.
A rational move in today's swirling currency
and business environment
would be to buy physical gold regularly,
as well as oil-related shares.
We also recommend accumulating
certain blue chips that are down 75%
from their highs. At the first hint of recovery,
equity markets will roar back
so fast that no one will be able to pile
in at the bottom. Infrastructure stocks
have come back down to buy levels.

Finally, if you consider Davos a lagging
economic indicator (as I do), take
note that at this year's forum financiers
and bankers will be absent,
heads of government will be tripping
over each other and business leaders
will be few and far between (due to
budget restrictions). One of the main
panellists, Ramalinga Raju of Satyam
Computer, has apologised for not attending:
he is in prison for accounting
fraud. Government will be set on a
pedestal while capitalism is held up to
public obloquy. Every time this has
happened in the past, economic recovery
was just around the corner.
Hope is cheap after 18 months of
deepening turmoil.

[snowfreak]

der erste serienmäßige Elektrowagen: http://4wardseconomy.blogspot.com/20...in-39-sec.html

[Green]

mal wieder CAPE:

http://www.businessinsider.com/shill...-for-me-2009-2

Shiller: Stocks Not Yet Cheap Enough For Me

Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, the author of "Irrational Exuberance," created one of the most useful and predictive measures of stock-market valuation: the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE).

As Professor Shiller explains in the TechTicker interview above, the CAPE mutes the impact of the business cycle by averaging 10 years of earnings. It thus provides a good picture of the market's value regardless of where we are in the business cycle.

(Why is this important? Because profit margins are mean-reverting. In boom times, companies have high profit margins and big earnings. In busts, profit margins collapse and companies have small earnings. Taking a single-year P/E ratio can therefore provide a misleading picture of value: In booms, with high profit margins, stocks look cheaper than they really are. In busts, with low margins, stocks look more expensive than they are.)

As you can see in the chart below, Professor Shiller's P/E has finally dropped below fair value for the first time in 15 years. The S&P 500 is down significantly since this chart was created, moreover, so the market's cyclically adjusted PE is now under 14X (compared to a long-term average of about 15X).

So is Prof. Shiller going all-in? No. He's waiting until the P/E drops below 10X, which it has done at major market lows in the past. That could happen either through an additional severe drop or a long period in which the market moves sideways and earnings grow again.

[Green]

wenn der markt diese schwachen zahlen heute abschütteln kann, dann könnte wirklich was gehen.

aber der tag wird lang...

Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 36,000 to 667,000 after seasonal adjustments in the week ended Feb. 21, the Labor Department said in a weekly report Thursday. That's the highest level since Oct. 2, 1982, although the labor force was much smaller then.

Wall Street economists had expected a slight decline, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

...

Meanwhile, according to Thursday's report the tally of continuing claims - those drawn by workers collecting benefits for more than one week in the week ended Feb. 14 - soared 114,000 to 5,112,000. That's the highest level since the government started keeping track in 1967.by Continuing claims are up more than two million in the past year alone, a sign of just how hard it is for the unemployment to find new work.



DATA SNAP: US Jan Durable Goods Down More Than Expected
Last update: 2/26/2009 8:30:06 AM
================================================== =============
Jan Durable Goods Orders: Jan Dec ! Consensus: !
Total Orders: -5.2% -4.6%r ! -3.0% !
Ex-Transportation: -2.5% -5.5%r ! Actual: !
Ex-Defense: -2.3% -7.5%r ! -5.2% !
================================================== =============

wohl gemerkt, dass sind monats zahlen!!

...Year over year, durables were 26.4% lower, in unadjusted terms...

[Swai]

Von gestern noch:

Treasurys lower after 5-year auction
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...CA133B2193E%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices moved lower Wednesday, pushing yields higher for a third day, as the government sold a record amount of 5-year notes, the second in a trio of U.S. auctions flooding the bond market with fresh supply this week.

Yields on 10-year notes...rose 15 basis points to 2.95%.

Two-year note yields increased 6 basis points to 1.08%. The securities haven't closed above 1% since Feb. 9.

The Treasury Department sold $32 billion in 5-year notes to yield 1.985%.

Investors bid $2.21 for every dollar of the notes up for sale, the most since November, the Treasury said.

Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, took 48.9% of the sale, the most since September 2006, according to RBS Greenwich Capital.

On Tuesday, the government saw decent demand for $40 billion in 2-year securities, though weak interest from indirect bidders.

On Thursday, the government will sell $22 billion in 7-year notes. That sale is creating the most uncertainty for traders because the maturity hasn't been offered since 1993, raising questions about how much demand it will garner from investors.


Macht diese Woche also bereits wieder $94 Mrd. an Staatsanleihen. Interessant wird es, wenn man "decent demand" öfters liest und die Überzeichnungen seltener werden.


Gruß,
Swai