[Green]

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...30-plus-vs-q1/

Applied Materials See Q2 Revs Down 30%-Plus Vs. Q1

Posted by Eric Savitz

Applied Materials (AMAT) CFO George Davis told investors on the company’s post-earnings conference call this afternoon that Applied’s revenues are likely to be down more than 30% sequentially in the fiscal second quarter ending in April. Davis said that due to continued economic uncertainty, the company is not providing specific guidance on revenues, profits, orders or shipments. That suggests of no more than $931 million; the Street consensus estimate has been $1.13 billion. That would be down about 57% from a year ago.

Applied CEO Mike Splinter said on the call that the company’s customers have indicated their businesses are suffering their most severe fall off they have ever experienced. He said that losses are “mounting universally,” with fab utilization at historic lows, ranging from 30% to 70% for those factories not shutdown.

Splinter says Applied believe chip factory output has dropped over 25% over the last six months, with a 10% permanent reduction in memory capacity. He said there is “essentially no demand for incremental capacity.”

Splinter says the wafer fab equipment industry is likely to see spending drop 50% this year, to about $10 billion to $12 billion, and that getting to the high end of the range will require a pick up in the second half. He says the level of investment in the industry is at the lowest level in 15 years. He indicated that the company is planning for “a prolonged period of weakness.”

Meanwhile, Splinter also said that the company expects the market for crystalline solar manufacturing equipment to be down 50% year over year in 2009. Splinter noted that global credit crunch continues to impact new contact flow.

Splinter says Applied does expect to buy back any stocks in the current quarter, but that it plans to maintain its dividend.

Davis said the company expects to exceed its previous cost savings target of $400 million, noting that total headcount will be reduced by more than 2,000, or about 14% of its workforce at the end of fiscal 2008.

[Big AL]

Markt hat auf Messers Schneide gedreht. Bei solidem Close ist Long weiterhin Favorit imo.

[Green]

spannend und bisher unvorstellbar, was zur zeit im DRAM bereich abgeht:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...-mating-dance/

Micron Slides As DRAM Sector Enters Frantic Mating Dance

Posted by Eric Savitz

The DRAM sector is apparently holding serious talks about a co-ordinated massive consolidation of capacity in an effort to address the severe financial troubles in the industry that have resulted from a collapse of prices in the face of weakening demand and excess manufacturing capacity.

As Reuters reported yesterday, the Japanese Nikkei business daily asserted that Elpida, the world’s third-largest DRAM maker, is holding talks about combining forces with the Taiwanese DRAM makers Powerchip, ProMOS and Rexchip.

In a research note today, Barclays Capital analyst Tim Luke says his checks find that talks between the various parties and the Taiwanese government are ongoing and structuring a deal could take at least several more weeks. Luke also notes that ProMOS has been unable to raise the $150 million it will need to repay $350 million in debt due on February 14.

Luke reports that there are two scenarios being discussed in the industry. One possibility would be the creation of a single mega-company that would merge all the Taiwanese DRAM companies, including Powerchip, Rexchip, Nanya, Inotera, ProMOS and Winbond, into a single company along with Elpida and Micron (MU).

An alternative approach, he says, would be for the companies to be dividend into two groups. One, led by Elpida, would include Powerchip, Rexcihp and possibly ProMOS. The other, led by Micron (MU), would include Nanya, Inotera (in which Micron holds a 36.5% stake), Winbond and possilby ProMOS.

Luke thinks the two group scenario is the more likely. He also says that and potential decision on consolidation or reduction in DRAM supply would likely provide support for improving sentiment on the sector.

Meanwhile, the drama around Qimonda continues; the company yesterday cut production at its main plant in Dresden, Germany, and said it needs to find new capital by the end of March to avoid liquidation. DigiTimes reports that Qimonda has held talks with Taiwan-based Formosa Plastics about potentially buying Qimonda. Formosa Plastics is a company related to Nanya and Inotera.

Luke thinks the governments of Taiwan and Japan will contribute $4 billion to $7 billion in loans or “an outright bailout” to keep their countries’ DRAM sector alive.

While consolidation in the industry would clearly be a good thing for Micron, what is not clear is what impact some sort of multi-company deal led by Micron would have on the company’s shareholders.

[Big AL]

Gap-Down unter den kurzfristigen Uptrend im COMPX und SPX. Das spricht eine deutliche Sprache imo. Jegliches Long-Setup zerstört, switch auf Short.

[Green]

http://blog.markt-daten.de/2009/02/2...ge-implodiert/

Chipmaschinenausrüster: Auftragslage implodiert
Rubrik: Allgemein

Die nordamerikanischen Chipmaschinenausrüster publizierten das Book-to-Bill Ratio für den Januar mit 0,48 auf dem niedrigsten Niveau seit April 2001 (0,44). Das heißt auf einen Auslieferungsvolumen von 100 US-Dollar kommen Aufträge in der Höhe von 48 US-Dollar. Der Vormonatswert wurde von 0,93 auf 0,86 revidiert.

Der 3-Monatsschnitt der Aufträge halbierte sich im Monatsvergleich auf 285,6 Mrd. US-Dollar von 579,1 Mrd. US-Dollar. Auf Jahresbasis liegt die Auftragslage 75,0% tiefer. Das Auslieferungsvolumen reduzierte sich gemächlicher; bei 592,2 Mrd. US-Dollar im Januar lag der Abschlag im Monatsvergleich bei 11,9% und 53,7% im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat.

Nominal befindet sich das Auftragsvolumen auf dem Stand der frühen 90er Jahre. Ursächlich sieht der Chipmaschinenausrüster-Verband SEMI die geringe Verbrauchernachfrage nach Elektronikartikeln wie den globalen Wirtschaftsabschwung.

Das düstere Bild verdeutlicht folgender Chart; zum einen die eingebrochenen Auftragseingänge (grau, rechte Achse) und Auslieferungen (blau, r.) wie auch das Book-to-Bill-Ratio (hellblau, li.):

[Green]

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...ers-evaporate/

Semi Equip Book-To-Bill Hits 0.1 As Orders Evaporate

Posted by Eric Savitz

You have to wonder if any industry ever has suffered through a downturn like the one the semiconductor equipment industry is now enduring.

According to EETimes, the seers at VLSI Research now says the worldwide fab tool book-to-bill ratio in January dropped to 0.1, one of the lowest levels ever. A book-to-bill of 0.1 means that for every $10 in orders filled, just $1 of new orders are received.

The research firm expects a 49% drop in equipment sales this year.

The EETimes piece notes that some the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan earlier this week said the book-to-bill for fab tool vendors in Japan in January fell to 0.55, from 0.7 in December, a seven-year low. SEMI, the U.S. semi equipment trade association, reported a book-to-bill for North American-based manufacturers of of 0.48 in January, down from 0.86 in December.

Carl Johnson, proprietor of semi equipment research firm Infrastructure contends at that low level, “the tools that are being ordered are going to the science sandboxes and not the production lines.”

In short, the chip industry for now has basically stopped ordering new production equipment.



http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...grow-idc-says/

Global 2009 IT Spending Will Barely Grow, IDC Says

Posted by Eric Savitz

The problem isn’t just chips: IDC is forecasting worldwide 2009 IT spending growth of just 0.5%, down from a November forecast of 2.6% growth. The research firm said that if recent exchange rate trends continue “this will translate into a significant decline in revenues for U.S.-based IT suppliers.”

IDC says the biggest will be on hardware: it sees spending in the sector shrinking 3.6%, “led by a steep decline” in outlays on servers, PCs and printers. Spending on software and IT services is sepxceted to grow 3.4%. IDC had previously expected 4.6% growth in hardware and 3.7% growth in software and services.

IDC sees U.S. overall IT spending growth of 0.1%, down from its previous forecast of 0.9% growth, with hardware spending down 16%. The research firm sees 0.1% growth in Western Europe, and 1.4% growth in Asia/Pacific. Japan is expected to see a 1.8% decline in IT spend.

Meanwhile, in another report, IDC reports that the worldwide server market shrank 14% in the fourth quarter versus the year ago quarter, on a 12% drop in unit shipments. “Volume systems” were down 16.8%, midrange systems fell 14.5% and high-end enterprise systems fell 7.5%. IDC said this was the first time since 2002 that all three server segments saw a decline in revenue at the same time.



http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...dc-says-dn-22/

Gartner Sees ‘09 Chip Revs Off 24%; IDC Says Dn 22%

Posted by Eric Savitz

Both Gartner and IDC this morning have laid out grim scenarios for semiconductor industry revenues for 2009. Given the depressing guidance chip companies have been providing of late, the forecasts should not be that surprising. But they do lay out in stark detail just how things are looking right now in terms of demand for all things electronic.

Gartner says it now sees 2009 worldwide semiconductor revenues of $194.5 billion, down 24.1% from 2008. That’s a gloomier view than the research firm had in mid-December, when it had forecast a 16% decline. Gartner sees growth resuming in 2010, projecting a 7.5% rise in revenues next year. By 2012, Gartner says, revenues should reach $253.4 billion - still shy of the 2008 level of $256.4 billion. The research firm says it expects Q1 revenue to be down at least 17% sequentially from Q4, but that it could be even worse than that. Gartner says its “negative scenario” would mean a 33% decline in 2009 revenues.

IDC is forecasting a 22% revenue decline this year, due to double-digit declines in unit shipments, low utilization rates and price erosion. The research firm says macro factors should bottom at the end of 2009 but won’t recover until mid-2010. IDC does not expect revenue growth in the DRAM and NAND markets until 2010. IDC also said capital spending by the chip industry is likely to fall by more than 45% in 2009. Like Gartner, IDC says chip industry revenue levels reached in 2008 are not likely to be reached again until beyond 2011.



->wachstum wird zwar definitv zurückkehren, allerdings wird es sehr lange dauern, bis die 2008er levels wieder reicht werden.
das gilt es bei evtl. long engagements in einem turnaround zu berücksichtigen!

[bufett]

ohje....

http://community.investopedia.com/ne...px?printable=1

Big Names Breaking Trendlines
February 27, 2009 | by Joey Fundora
The use of trendlines is one of the most commonly followed trading techniques. It is a very simple way to assess a trend, and trend breaks are fairly obvious. While drawing a trendline can almost be considered an art, in general, they are all the same in that they attempt to define a trading channel or trend. A break in a trendline can often foreshadow a trend reversal. The most important thing a trader needs to account for is that a trendline should be considered flexible (like a rubber band as opposed to being rigid like a piece of glass). Often there will be shakeouts as trendlines are obvious places for traders to place stop losses or for momentum traders to enter trades.

Currently, there are some widely followed stocks in the process of breaking trendlines. While there is the chance of a shakeout in these areas, there are a few ways to mitigate that risk. Often, there is a clearly defined area for setting stops that would signal a possible trap if triggered. Also, a stock will often retrace back to the broken trendline a few sessions later and offer a second chance at entering a trade. (For more, see Trading Failed Breaks.)

Amgen, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMGN) had a high volume break of a trendline yesterday. Often a trendline will also serve the dual purpose of outlining a chart pattern. In this case AMGN is breaking out a triangle on very high relative volume. While it’s probably not a good idea chasing a stock that has fallen 10% in one day, the measured target takes this stock much lower. This is probably a good candidate for a failure on a bounce that takes it back toward the trendline.


Starbucks Corp. (Nasdaq:SBUX) recently fell under a trendline and attempted to get back over it for the next two sessions. It looks like it is backing away from the trendline and could be headed lower. SBUX is a good example of a trendline break offering a good stop-loss area. Notice the few sessions leading to the trendline break offered a trading opportunity (retrace into gap) that combined with the trendline break increases the odds for a successful trade.


Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC) dipped under the trendline that was framing a triangle consolidation a few sessions ago. Much like SBUX, it quickly attempted to get back into the triangle, but yesterday's reversal may lead to a full-fledged breakdown.


eBay, Inc. (Nasdaq:EBAY) is another example of a stock breaking a trendline. While EBAY is really just beginning to dip under the trendline, there are some bearish elements to this chart that may be warning of a successful breakdown. Notice how it failed to reach the upper trendline on the last bounce, and had a bearish gap soon thereafter that wasn’t even close to being filled. (For further reading, see Track Stock Prices With Trendlines.)


While there is certainly a multitude of ways to trade trendline breaks, it is important to expect some volatility near these areas. As mentioned, traders use these areas for placing stops or entering trades, and thus the chance for fake outs increase. However, if a trader can successfully manage risk, these breaks often go ahead to ignite longer term trend changes. The million dollar question is if these stocks are breaking these trendlines, or are they stretching the trendlines like a rubber band and having them snap back into a bear trap? Let us know what you think by joining the Investopedia Community, and posting your thoughts.

Charts created using www.stockcharts.com

At the time of writing Joey Fundora did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
By Joey Fundora

Grüße bufett

[Green]

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...han-you-think/

Cell Phones: Demand Is Even Worse Than You Think
Posted by Eric Savitz

How bad is the market for cell phones? Really bad. Worse than really bad.
RBC Capital’s Mark Sue this morning cut his Q1 forecast for global handset unit demand to 230 million, from 248 million, which would mean a sequential drop of 25%. For the full year, Sue now expects handset units to drop 18%. “Despite some inventory clearing at carriers and distributors, magnified deterioration in developed markets and sharp declines in emerging markets means global handsets may contract more than dire predictions,” he writes in a research note.

Sue thinks that Nokia (NOK) “may feel the brunt of the weakness this quarter,” given that it will also likely lose some market share. He cut his unit forecast for Nokia for Q1 to 85 million units, down from 93 million; that would be off 25% from the 113 million the company reported in Q4. The loss of volume, he says, will weigh on operating margins: he now thinks Nokia’s device business will report operating margins of 5% in the quarter, down from a peak of 20%.

Sue cut his Q1 revenue forecast to 9.1 billion Euros from 10 billion; his EPS forecast is down to 7 Euro cents, from 14 cents. For 2009, he now sees EPS of 50 Euro cents, down from 75 cents. For 2010, he goes to 75 cents, from 90 cents. He cut his target on the stock to $12, from $14. Sue also thinks Nokia may have to further cut costs if demand does not pick up soon.

“Low end, midrange and smartphones may all remain challenged as consumers reduce spending and push out planned upgrades,” he writes.

Meanwhile, Sue also cut numbers today for Motorola (MOT), due to “a sharp reduction in demand, share loss and our view that things may not improve during the second half.” For Q1, he now sees the company selling 14 million units, down from his old estimate of 15 million, for a sequential decline of 27%.. (He says the consensus is for 16.4 million.) His revenue estimate drops to $5.4 billion, from $5.6 billion; but his loss estimate remains 12 cents a share. For calendar 2009, he now thinks the company may only ship 60 million units, well below the consensus at 70 million, and down from 100 million in 2008. He sees the company losing 23 cents a share, well below the Street consensus loss estimate of 14 cents a share. Sue keeps his Sector Perform rating and $5.50 price target on the stock.

[kosto1929]

Die Marktbereinigung nimmt Formen an, bei Wendesignalen ein sehr interessanter Sektor (besonders Speicherchips), da auch im letzten Bullenmarkt der Underperformer schlechthin. Die Kapazitäten wurden stark gekürzt und Investitionen in moderne Werke auf Eis gelegt.

Gläubigerschutz: US-Chiphersteller pleite

Die Krise in der Chipbranche hat nach dem deutschen Hersteller Qimonda in den USA ein weiteres Opfer gefordert. Der Flash-Chip Hersteller Spansion beantragte Gläubigerschutz. Die Firma leidet wie die gesamte Branche unter dem rapiden Preisverfall sowie der flauen Nachfrage infolge der weltweiten Wirtschaftskrise.

[Green]

gute nachrichten!
ALTR hat die guidance erhöht!

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/090302/20090302006219.html?.v=1

Altera Updates First Quarter Guidance

Monday March 2, 4:15 pm ET

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR - News) today announced its mid-quarter update for the first quarter of 2009.

First quarter sales are now expected to be down 15 to 20 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2008. Prior guidance for first quarter sales was for sequential sales to decline in the range of 15 to 25 percent. The improved outlook is largely attributable to better than expected demand from OEMs providing equipment for Chinese 3G wireless networks. Overall, the first quarter sales outlook remains muted as a result of slowing global business conditions...



ok, nicht wirklich die gute nachricht, die ihr jetzt vielleicht erwartet habt.

aber zumindest wirds (vorerst) nicht noch düsterer.
und wieder mal müssen die chinesen es richten.