[Swai]

Ein ähnlich hohes Wirtschaftwachstum wie in Q1 war zu erwarten gewesen... sogar noch etwas höher. Die massive Kreditvergabe pusht die Wirtschaft ohne Zweifel.

Dumm nur, dass der Rest der Welt davon offenbar nicht viel hat, denn die Ex- und viel wichtiger die Importe sind seit 8 Monaten nur im Sturzflug ggü. dem Vorjahr.

Und ich möchte nicht wissen, welchen Anteil Rohstoffe bei den Importen in den letzten Monaten gehabt haben. Stockpiling wird definitiv einen Einfluss darauf gehabt haben...wären die Daten sonst evtl. noch geringer ausgefallen?

Wobei ich es erstaunlich finde, dass das inländische Preisniveau noch immer rückläufig ist? Sollte bei derartiger Inlandsstimulierung doch eigentlich umgekehrt sein? Kommt bei der Bevölkerung nicht genug davon an, dass der Konsum signifikant steigen kann?


Gruß,
Swai

[maxee]

genau wegen diesem Grund suche ich von den erwähnten Titeln einen Anlagetipp!

Diese Titeln sind nach meiner Meinung nach ziemlich ident!

In welche Werte seit Ihr in China veranlagt?

mfg
maxee

[Green]

ziemlich lang. mittelteil evtl. überspringen.
interessant wg. der aktuellen vor ort beobachtungen (zu beginn und ende).
sieht so aus, als würde china seine eigene version der housing bubble kreieren:

Notes on a real estate trip in China

[GoldDigger]

China State Construction plans biggest IPO of 2009


By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China State Construction Engineering Corp. is planning to raise as much as 50.16 billion yuan ($7.3 billion) from an initial public offering that would make it the world's biggest primary-market issue this year.

The state-owned construction contractor, known for building the Water Cube indoor-swimming center for last year's Beijing Olympics, said it plans to sell as many as 12 billion shares for a Shanghai listing. The shares will be sold in an indicated price range between 3.96 yuan and 4.18 yuan a share.

The IPO announcement comes in the wake of improving investor confidence as stock and property prices are booming. And it comes amid signs of a speedier economic recovery in China than analysts had expected.

Taifook Research analysts wrote in a report that the company's IPO is expected to draw as much as 1.6 trillion yuan from applicants.

"The central government's 4 trillion yuan economic-stimulus package has not only led to a sharp recovery in China's economic recovery in [the second quarter], but also the keen investment interest in the building and construction sector," they added.

China's Shanghai Composite is one of the best performing stock indexes in 2009, having added more than 76% so far this year.

The company plans to use the IPO proceeds for housing and infrastructure projects and for working capital.

[Green]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a.2Cy97Rx5FY

China’s New Stock Accounts Advance to 18-Month High

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By Bloomberg News

July 22 (Bloomberg) -- China’s individual investors rushed to join the world’s second-biggest rally this year as the government lifted a ban on initial public offerings and the nation’s economy rebounded.

Investors opened 484,799 stock accounts last week, data from the nation’s clearing house showed today, the most since the five days ended Jan. 25, 2008, and almost five times this year’s low in January.

“The prospect of making quick bucks in the stock market is luring retail investors,” Liu Xiangning, a Shenzhen-based strategist at United Securities Co., said by telephone.

...

Individual investors account for 67 percent of market turnover and ownership, Alan Landau, president of Marco Polo Investments Ltd. said in May.

The Shanghai Composite climbed 2.6 percent to 3,296.62 today, its highest close since June 6, 2008.

IPO Resumption

Your-Mart Co., a Chinese retailer, surged 94 percent from its offer price on its first day of trading in Shenzhen last week, following similar debut gains in shares of Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co. and Zhejiang Wanma Cable Co. this month. They’re the first three companies to go public in China since a moratorium on IPOs was lifted last month.

An average of 25.72 billion shares have been traded daily on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges so far in July, almost triple the 9.96 billion a year earlier.

...

[Target]

WTO: China to overtake Germany as largest exporter

BEIJING, July 23 -- China is expected to overtake Germany as the world's top merchandise exporter this year due to a weak performance of the European economy, an official with the World Trade Organization said Wednesday.

WTO chief economist Patrick Low made the remarks at a two-day gathering of trade ministers from APEC economies in Singapore.

Figures from the global trade body show that China's merchandise export totaled 1.428 trillion U.S. dollars last year, slightly below Germany's 1.465 trillion dollars.

The organization also predicted that global trade will plunge by 10 percent this year, the largest decline in six decades, the Financial Times reported. But the rate of decline is easing, said Pascal Lamy, Director-General of WTO at the trade ministers' meeting.

"WTO data show that Asian countries are leading a recovery in the global trade," Lamy said.

International financial institutions also predicted that as the world economy gradually pulls out of the recession, led by emerging economies later this year, China will benefit from recovering trade.

In a survey among 240 multinational companies on global investment outlook released Wednesday, the United States Conference on Trade and Investment found that China, which achieved a GDP growth of nearly 8 percent in the second quarter, remains the top destination for foreign direct investment, followed by the U.S. and the remaining three Brick countries (India, Brazil, and Russia).

Na, das kratzt an der teuschen Seele!

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...t_11760779.htm

[Green]

http://mpettis.com/2009/07/more-publ...ulus/#comments

...

My second comment concerns university unemployment. I have been writing for three years that unemployment among college graduates in China was soaring, and that authorities were understandably nervous. So nervous, it seems, that they have been putting pressure on university to do more to get jobs for their graduates by limiting their next-year enrollment to the number of graduates this year with jobs.

There are, of course, two ways to improve statistics. One way is to improve the underlying reality. The second way is just to fake the numbers. According to a Tuesday article in the People’s Daily:

A Shaanxi graduate said his university gave him a bogus work contract to inflate its post-study employment figures. The former student said the contract was for a job at a local company which did not exist and carried the signature of his tutor.

I had no idea that I already had a job,” the student, who had been hunting for work, wrote anonymously on a website. In order to ensure a high employment rate and deliver a satisfactory work report during the global financial crisis, some Chinese universities have been faking work contracts or employment agreement for graduates, Southern Metropolis Daily reported yesterday.

“Faking employment rates is not an isolated case and it has existed for years in China,” an education expert, who wanted to remain anonymous, told China Daily. Due to fierce competition among universities, especially secondary-tier ones, the performance and reputation of a school largely depends on its employment rate after graduation, he said.

According to unwritten rules at many universities, students cannot graduate if they do not find a job, the report said. This means many unemployed students have to buy a fake job contract or employment agreement from small companies so that they can get their certificates.

This kind of thing will mean that the college employment numbers, a very useful figure for understanding the effect of economic growth in China, are now much less useful. Already the People’s Daily article cites differences between the Ministry of Education numbers and a private firm’s numbers.

The Ministry of Education said that nearly two thirds of them [2009 college graduates] had already secured jobs before graduation in early July. But this figure differs widely with an employment report from an independent consulting firm on higher education. A report from MyCOS HR Digital Information Co said 58 percent of prospective graduates had not signed job contracts by the end of June and that 2 percent had contracts cancelled.

By the way the article has an interesting graph on the number of college graduates over the past eight years, for those who are interested. The total number of university graduates has surged from 1.45 million in 2002 to 5.59 million in 2008 and 6.10 million this year. The intervening years saw 2.12, 2.80, 3.38, 4.13, and 4.95 million graduates.

[forexyman]

USA kuschen vor China
von Tobias Bayer (Frankfurt)

Die Obama-Regierung trifft sich zum ersten Mal mit Vertretern Chinas. Kritisierten die Amerikaner früher immer den zu billigen Renminbi, dürfte dieses Mal der Dollar im Mittelpunkt stehen. Notenbankchef Bernanke arbeitet schon einmal vor - und stärkt verbal den Greenback.

Wenn die USA und China über Wechselkurse debattierten, verlief das meistens so: Die Vereinigten Staaten forderten Peking auf, den Renminbi deutlich aufzuwerten. Im Gegenzug wehrte die Volksrepublik das Ansinnen ab. 2009 verläuft die Debatte mit verkehrten Rollen: China befürchtet einen Dollarverfall und mahnt Washington, Leistungsbilanz und Haushalt in Ordnung zu bringen. Die Amerikaner wiederum geben sich Mühe, den Dollar stark zu reden.

Nach Ansicht von Marktteilnehmern wird das Spiel mit vertauschten Rollen auch am Montag und Dienstag aufgeführt. Dann kommen US-Außenministerin Hillary Clinton sowie Finanzminister Timothy Geithner mit ihren chinesischen Kollegen zum Strategic and Economic Dialogue zusammen. Es ist das erste Treffen der Obama-Regierung mit China. "Ging es früher um den Renminbi-Wechselkurs, so steht nun der US-Dollar im Blickpunkt", schrieb Wang Qing, Volkswirt bei Morgan Stanley, in einem Researchbericht. "China ist an einem stabilen Dollar und einer berechenbaren US-Politik interessiert."

Der neue Schwerpunkt der Gespräche ist Ausdruck einer Machtverschiebung. Wegen Konjunkturprogrammen und Bankenrettungspaketen steigt das Haushaltsdefizit der USA, die über den Kapitalmarkt dieses Jahr mehr als 2500 Mrd. $ aufnehmen müssen. Allein diese Woche sollen 115 Mrd. $ an Papieren begeben werden.

Wichtigster Abnehmer der US-Staatsanleihen ist China. Die Volksrepublik verfügt über 2000 Mrd. $ an Devisenreserven, rund 65 Prozent davon hält sie in Dollar. Sie fürchtet wegen der hohen US-Verschuldung einen Wertverlust und regte in den vergangenen Monaten an, eine neue Weltwährung zu schaffen. Der Gouverneur der chinesischen Notenbank sprach sich dabei für die Sonderziehungsrechte des Internationalen Währungsfonds aus.

Der Dollar steht momentan auf der Verkaufsliste der Händler weit oben. Der Greenback notiert gegenüber dem Euro auf dem tiefsten Stand seit sieben Wochen. Die Gemeinschaftswährung verteuerte sich am Montag auf 1,4255 $, in der Spitze stieg sie sogar auf 1,4291 $. Kurzfristig könnte es für den Dollar weiter abwärts gehen: Laut der US-Terminbörsenaufsicht CFTC befinden sich die Dollar-Nettoverkaufspositionen mit 133.800 Kontrakten auf dem höchsten Niveau seit zwölf Monaten. "Die Börsen sind stark. Das ist momentan schlecht für den Dollar. Er wird kurzfristig verlieren", schrieb Credit-Suisse-Volkswirt Marcus Hettinger in einem Researchbericht.


Clinton und Geithner deuteten bereits in einem Beitrag für das "Wall Street Journal" an, dass sie sich bei den Gesprächen wohl nicht auf den Renminbi-Wechselkurs konzentrieren werden. Stattdessen betonten sie die Bedeutung von Sozialreformen innerhalb der Volksrepublik. Hintergedanke ist, die Sparquote Chinas und damit die globalen Ungleichgewichte zu verringern: "Steigende persönliche Einkommen und eine Stärkung des sozialen Netzes würden der chinesischen Binnennachfrage und damit der Weltwirtschaft einen Schub verleihen", schrieben Clinton und Geithner.

Für Geithner selbst bedeutet das eine weitere Abschwächung der Rethorik. Anlässlich seiner Anhörung vor dem Kongress im Januar hatte er China noch der "Währungsmanipulation" bezichtigt. Von diesem Vorwurf entfernte sich in den vergangenen Monaten zusehends. "Das war äußerst unglücklich, so etwas öffentlich zu sagen", kritisierte Donald Straszheim, Chef der Beratungsgesellschaft Straszheim Global Advisors.

n den USA mehren sich die Stimmen, die sich für einen starken Dollar aussprechen. Prominentester Befürworter ist Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke. In einem Interview mit dem Fernsehsender PBS äußerte er Unterstützung für solch eine Politik und gab zu verstehen, dass eine Erholung der US-Wirtschaft den Greenback begünstige. Für das zweite Halbjahr erwartet er ein Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von auf das Jahr hochgerechnet einem Prozent und eine Arbeitslosenquote von mehr als zehn Prozent.

"Diese Aussage sorgte für Bewegung am Devisenmarkt. Es gab dem Dollar Aufwind", schrieben die Währungsstrategen von Barclays Capital in einem Researchbericht. "Bernankes Kommentare dämpfen die Sorgen der Chinesen vor einem Dollarverfall. Das ist positiv für den Greenback", sagte Tsutomu Soma, Währungshändler bei Okasan Securities.

[Swai]

Einige interessante Ausschnitte von ZeroHedge:


Some Weekend Thoughts By John Mauldin

China is growing by about 8% a year, which is amazing on the surface of it, as their exports are down about 20% (more in some sectors). How can that be? I continually read about how China is going to lead the world out of its global funk. And 8% growth in GDP does seem pretty strong. But we need to look a little deeper.

If I told you that the next US stimulus package would be $4.5 trillion dollars, mostly given to banks that would be forced to loan out the money quickly, do you think that might jump spending and GDP in the short term? Would you start looking for a few bubbles to be created? What about the dollar?

That is the equivalent of what China is now doing. The volume of credit that is flowing into China is equivalent to one-third of their GDP. Banks that already have large problem-loan portfolios are now lending even more, in a very short time frame. China has severe capacity-utilization problems, as trade has sharply fallen; and the US consumer is unlikely to return to anywhere near the level of consumption that was the case in 2006.

The Chinese stock market is up 85% this year, and commodity and real estate prices are rising. And no wonder: the money supply shot up 28.5% in June alone. That money is looking for a home. My friend Vitaliy Katsenelson has written a very perceptive essay for Foreign Policy magazine, talking about the nature of the current growth in China.

"But don't confuse fast growth with sustainable growth. Much of China's growth over the past decade has come from lending to the United States. The country suffers from real overcapacity. And now growth comes from borrowing -- and hundreds of billion-dollar decisions made on the fly don't inspire a lot of confidence. For example, a nearly completed, 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed in June due to the poor quality of its construction.

"This growth will result in a huge pile of bad debt -- as forced lending is bad lending. The list of negative consequences is very long, but the bottom line is simple: There is no miracle in the Chinese miracle growth, and China will pay a price. The only question is when and how much."

[...]
"There is no better example of this speculative activity than what is being seen in the copper market. It is easy for global merchants, hedge funds etc to ship cathode into China and warehouse it outside the reporting system, so fuelling investors' sentiments that copper demand in China is soaring and at the same time draining copper from the rest of the market.


"It is not so much industry which is doing this buying in China, but individuals, financial institutions and even small companies divorced from the copper industry who are buying and holding the metal because copper is a store of value and prices will go up is the common response. We updated our numbers for the first half of this year. They are truly staggering. Over 1 million tonnes of cathode is sitting in China mostly outside the reporting system as a punt on rising prices ." (Emphasis mine)

If it is happening in copper it is likely to be happening in other commodity markets as well. If you are trading the metals, you should be aware that a quick drop could happen if demand falls off due to there being a glut of supply coming back onto the market.


http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...n-mauldin.html


Gruß,
Swai

[Green]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=avBbCbuEn33g

Bank of China Aims to Continue Lending Expansion

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By Bloomberg News

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of China Ltd., which doled out the most loans among Chinese banks in the first half, plans to keep expanding credit unless the government clamps down on the nation’s record lending boom.

The nation’s third-largest bank will maintain its original target of generating about 10 percent of China’s new loans in 2009, Beijing-based spokesman Wang Zhaowen said by telephone yesterday...


“Banks are willing to sacrifice their long-term health for short-term gains in profit, and more importantly, to please the government,” said Wen Chunling, a Beijing-based analyst at Fitch Ratings. “A significant part of the loans extended in the first half may become non-performing over the next five to 10 years.”

Capital adequacy ratios at China’s banks have dropped as a result of a surge in lending in the first half of the year, the central bank said in a report on its Web site today.

Constrain Growth

“The rapid decline in capital adequacy ratios and strengthened risk management may constrain the banking industry’s ability to sustain rapid growth in credit,” it said.

...

“Banks have every incentive to dole out more loans,” said Yang Qingli, a Beijing-based analyst at BOCOM International Ltd. “When the government is driving in the fast lane, you can’t just stop immediately.”

‘Second Dip’

...

The bank, 67.5 percent government-owned, accounted for 12.2 percent of new loans in China in the first half.

Non-performing loans at China’s 17 biggest lenders, almost all of which are state-controlled, fell by 43 billion yuan from the start of the year to 444 billion yuan as of June 30. Foreign lenders, which hold less than 3 percent of China’s banking assets, reported an 11 percent increase in soured debts in the period, according to the banking regulator.

Chinese banks extended a record 7.37 trillion yuan of new loans in the first half, triple the amount offered in the same period a year earlier and 47 percent more than the government’s full-year target, after lending restrictions were eased in November to stem an economic slowdown.

...